A summertime pattern of sea breezes and afternoon thunderstorms will dominate South Florida this weekend with high temperatures near 95 degrees today and only slightly cooler Sunday.
The change from primarily southwesterly winds is partly because of the Bermuda High nosing its way back into the state with its onshore flow.
But the high is also steering a sloppy area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms toward the Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center says has a 60% chance of development over the next seven days.
NHC forecasters believe a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. The area for potential development stretches from far west of the Lesser Antilles through Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.
While weekend heat and storms may be the priority, the budding system in the fertile main development region of the tropical Atlantic should also be watched, said FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross.
"It's raising eyebrows because computer forecast models show it developing into a significant tropical system — possibly a hurricane — near or east of the Bahamas next week," Norcross said in his Hurricane Intel blog. "We are moving toward the peak of hurricane season, so it's appropriate to pay attention."
Michael Lowry, a meteorologist with South Florida ABC-TV affiliate Channel 10, said in his daily tropical forecast that models are "quite bullish" on the area's development.
A dip in the jet stream closer to the end of the week may steer the system away from the east coast of Florida, but Lowry noted that a similar setup was forecast for Debby, which ended up in the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane before making landfall in Steinhatchee on Monday.
"In general, we like to see there’s a potential escape route ahead before reaching us here on the mainland, but it’s too soon to know for sure whether it’ll take it," Lowry said.
A thin layer of Saharan dust will keep the system sputtering for a few more days. If it does become a tropical storm, it would be named Ernesto, followed by Francine and Gordon.
Until a system forms a closed center of circulation, uncertainty in its destination is highly uncertain.
A hot weekend ahead with triple-digit 'feels like' temperatures
The National Weather Service in Miami is forecasting heat index or "feels like" temperatures Saturday to be as high as 107 in West Palm Beach. No heat advisory had been issued for the weekend as of Friday afternoon.
In Palm Beach County, a heat advisory is issued when heat-index temperatures are forecast to reach 108 degrees or higher for at least two hours.
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The NWS announced in June that Broward County would join Miami-Dade County in an experimental program that starts advisories at a lower threshold level. In those two counties, an advisory is issued if heat-index temperatures of 105 or higher are expected for at least two hours. An excessive heat warning is issued if the heat index is expected to reach 110 or higher for at least two hours.
What is a heat advisory?
A heat advisory means people sensitive to warm temperatures should take precautions to avoid heat illness, including staying hydrated and seeking breaks if working or playing outside. Signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke include symptoms such as muscle cramps, excessive sweating, a throbbing headache, passing out, confusion and seizures.
An excessive heat warning, the highest alert level on a four-tier scale, means everyone needs to take precautions to stay safe in the heat because "you may become seriously ill or even die," the NWS says.
Tips for staying safe during extreme hot weather
Tips for keeping safe during excessively hot weather from the American Red Cross:
- If you suspect heat injury, call for help.
- Children and the elderly are among the most vulnerable.
- Try not to work outside in the hottest part of the day; if you must work in the heat, slow down.
- When outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade.
- Drink plenty of water.
- If you wait until you feel thirsty, you're already getting dehydrated.
- Don't drink beverages containing caffeine or alcohol (sodas or beer). They interfere with the body’s temperature-regulating mechanisms.
- Sweating is the body’s mechanism for cooling. If you stop sweating, call for help.
Kimberly Milleris a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She coversreal estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe toThe Dirtfor a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them tokmiller@pbpost.com.Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
